I think the Election is Off

Canadians have a government led by that nerd we all hated in high school run a cabinet filled with Mike Harris Conservatives and Reformers. And still they lead in the polls. I like to think it isn't that Canadians are stupid. It is,simply put, because the opposition parties are unraveling at the seams and are offering us no meaningful alternatives.

The NDP are just where the government wants them, doing well enough to cause the Liberals considerable damage by splitting the centre - left vote, but low enough in the polls not to worry about. Try as he might Jack Layton simply cannot win over the hearts and minds of Canadians. It is more than the mustache. People just don't like him. Nobody is listening to Jack any more.

The Federal Liberals must be scratching their heads and asking themselves some pretty tough questions. Have you seen the polls? How could they screw up so badly? What the hell went wrong?

It isn't so much what went wrong as it is that those guys just can't seem to get it right. The once "natural ruling party" can't seem to pick a real leader. Lets face it, Dion was a disaster. You think they would learn from that. But no, instead of picking Bob Rae who actually has the ability to connect with Canadians they choose Micheal Ignatieff who, lets face it is a bit of a cold fish.

Canadians are a hard bunch to please and truth be told, a bit hypocritical about it all as well. We mumble on about how Ignatieff once supported the invasion of Iraq as a reason why they won't vote for the Liberals under Ignatieff's leadership all the while supporting a Prime Minister who, had he been in power at the time would have sure as hell sent Canadians into Iraq, no ands, ifs or buts.

The Coderre affair isn't doing Michael Ignatieff much good either. Already in trouble after a lackluster performance over the summer he didn't need problems in Quebec. Denis Coderre claims he is speaking out for the good of the party. "Hold still Michael while I slip this knife in." Codarre's hissy fit has caused the Liberal real aggravation. Michael claims he isn't taking this personally but a brief visit to Coderre's website shows that it has be wiped clean of everything but a riding map and a brief biography.

So here we sit. We have a right wing Prime Minister with a mean spirited, bullying style, changing what it means to be Canadian bit by bit.

Election talk is off. We don't have to opposition party strong enough to give Harper a run for his money so, here we are between a rock and a hard place.

Some days I despair.

What about all this Election Talk?

Ok, who really wants an election?

Jack Layton obviously doesn't. He has no where to go but down and with the Liberals talking tough, Jack has had the tables turned on him. He can't afford to risk an election so now he has to prop up Little Stevie, taking his turn to look like a hypocrite. As a further incentive he must know that the next election is most likely his last as party leader. He wants to stay put.

The saber rattling in the Liberal camp has reached a frenzy but it a pretty fair bet to suggest that Micheal most likely doesn't really want to go to the polls either. Try as he might over the summer to capture the hearts and minds of voters. Canadians just haven't jumped on the Liberal bandwagon. All the posturing is about taking his turn at bringing the government to the brink. He can't back down and be viewed as soft like Dion so he has to bet on Jack folding and supporting the right wingers.

It is a high stakes game.

So, who wants the government brought down? My bet is that a majority of Canadians would like to see Harper and his gang out of there, after he only got about 30% of the popular vote last time around. Canadians don't want an election unless it is pretty certain that Stevie and his gang are going to be shuffled off stage. After all, what is the point in having an election to give us the status quo? That is simply a wasted opportunity.

My bet is that the only one who really wants to go to the polls is Stephen Harper. At this point, he is likely to win another minority. In the worst case scenario he might take 40% and win a majority. The odds must look good from where he stands.

It is the proverbial rock and the hard place. Collectively, 65% of Canadians don't support this government but we are stuck with it because no other party can dredge up enough support to take over.

First we need a working coalition, then we have to change the system.

Who were those People?

There were stories on the web yesterday and in several newspapers this morning about Jack Layton's meeting with Little Stevie. The Liberals have been meeting with the Conservatives all summer so, big deal. Jack got a meeting set up so he could show that he was pushing the government on his issues too.

What struck me about the stories was the Reuters photos that accompanied them. It showed a couple of earnest young adults behind Layton holding up a couple of signs criticizing Jack for meeting. The signs I saw read "Jack will do anything for a new office" and "NDP + Conservatives". The cut lines read something like, "Protesters greet Jack Layton at the Langevin Block as he goes to Meet Stephen Harper."

The story that wasn't written by any reporter was "Who are those people?"

The left, however annoyed they might be at their party or the effectiveness of the leader, tend to grumble about it with each other and very, very seldom air their discontent in public.

That leaves us with the probability that the "protesters" were simply there to try to embarrass Jack. So who were they? I see two possibilities.

Either they were;

• Liberals staffers, annoyed that Jack's meeting with the PM took attention from their own discussions about Employment Insurance.
• Conservative staff trying to undermine the meeting before it even took place.
  

I am betting that the PMO agreed to the meeting with Layton knowing before hand that nothing would be accomplished.

• They knew that Little Stevie was not going to suddenly, see the error of his ways after a chat with Jack, and suddenly veer to the left.
  
• Jack Layton was hardly going to buy into Harper's right wing agenda.
• They did know that Layton wold emerge from the meeting to say the Harper Government is on the wrong track.
  

So what to do. They could just let it all unfold as expected or, try to undermine Layton's meeting right from the get go. My guess is that the stunt originated in the Prime Ministers office. Now how cynical is that? We shouldn't be at all surprised, political junkies take courses in this kind of thing.

I think the question should be, why don't the media report it.